© Kaytie Boomer | MLive.com/Kaytie Boomer | MLive.com/mlive.com/TNS A fence begins to sink into the rising water levels of the Saginaw River on the property near the USS Edson at the Saginaw Valley Naval Ship Museum on Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2020. SAGINAW, MI - Rising Lake Huron water levels could cause flooding in large parts of Saginaw and Bay counties this year, public officials say.
Public works commissioners from Saginaw, Bay and Tuscola counties released a map Thursday morning showing the project areas of impact near and along Saginaw Bay should the lake continue to rise.
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers predicts Saginaw Bay water levels will continue to rise up to 11 inches higher this summer. The new map shows which property will be below the Saginaw Bay's water level if certain conditions come to pass.
Large swaths of land along the Saginaw River could be underwater. This includes areas southwest of the City of Saginaw around the Shiawassee National Wildlife Refuge and east of I-75 near Zilwaukee and Kochville Township. Large areas along the Saginaw Bay shoreline, including a large inland area east of Bay City, may also flood.
In a worst-case scenario, specific conditions could also overwhelm the area's drain systems. If there is a strong northeast wind and a storm drops several inches of rain while water levels are at unprecedented highs, there will be no outlet for drains. Areas that have never flooded before may, Bay County Drain Commissioner Joseph Rivet said in the release.
The map depicts where the region is likely to flood in different scenarios. The light blue depicts what will likely happen if the Bay rises by a predicted 1 foot, with the darker colors representing what might happen with even higher water levels caused by northeast wind and rainfall, said Brian Wendling, Saginaw County Public Works Commissioner.
"At this point in time, based on their predictions, we're expecting to see that," Wendling said of the light-blue areas. "We're just trying to get the word out, make people aware."
The map doesn't account for flood control and protection infrastructure in some areas, including miles of dikes and multiple pump stations in Saginaw and Bay counties. However, these protections weren't designed to hold back this kind of weather for a significant period of time, he said.
There is probably going to be some damage to infrastructure, Wendling said, the question being where and to what extent.
"What we're finding out there now is a lot of these dikes that were put there many years ago are holding water on a full-time basis," Wendling said. "Unfortunately, it's starting to weaken them."
For this time of year, Saginaw Bay is already at all-time high water levels, which are predicted to continue all the way until July, Wendling said.
"This is the highest the water levels have been since 1986," Wendling said. "Knock on wood we won't have a lot of snow we're gonna contend with."
Often the ground can be relied on to absorb some spring rains, but not this year, Wendling said. The ground is saturated; in a large rain event, there won't be anywhere for the water to go, he said.
"For all practical purposes, everything that hits the ground is going to be runoff," Wendling said. "It's just going to magnify the problem that's already there."
Anyone inside or around the potentially-affected areas should review how prepared their homes and nearby infrastructure to handle excess water, Wendling said. There is potential for structural damage, he said. The news release also suggests elevating or moving belongings away from low-lying parts of those homes.
It's not guaranteed the area will see this kind of flooding. Only Mother Nature is going to know where the lake levels will end up and how much spring rain the region deals with, Wendling said.
"We're not trying to scare anybody, we're trying to raise awareness," Wendling said.
Read more:
Sen. Stabenow visits Bay County to discuss flooding, erosion and other high water issues
Bay City Commission agrees to send flood disaster declaration request to state
Bangor Township wants its Saginaw Bay shoreline declared a disaster area
Caretakers of USS Edson say breakwall needed to protect site from rising Saginaw River
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